Manatee County leads Florida's growth with 190% home value appreciation since 2013, followed by St. Johns County with 30% population growth since 2015. These counties combine strategic location, affordability, and robust infrastructure development, making them prime targets for relocation and investment through 2030.
Introduction
While headlines focus on Florida's market corrections, a deeper look at the data reveals a different story—one of strategic growth, targeted development, and sustained migration to specific counties across the state. Which Florida counties are actually experiencing the most significant growth heading into 2030? The answer isn't just about population numbers; it's about understanding the intersection of home value appreciation, net migration patterns, and development momentum that creates sustainable, long-term growth.
This comprehensive guide breaks down Florida's top five fastest growing counties based on real data and a custom Florida Growth Index that weighs home value growth (40%), population and net migration (40%), and development momentum (20%). Whether you're considering a relocation to the Sunshine State, evaluating investment opportunities, or simply tracking Florida's real estate evolution, this analysis will give you a clear picture of where Florida's growth is headed next.
Frequently Asked Questions About Florida's Fastest Growing Counties
Which Florida county is growing the fastest?
St. Johns County holds the title of Florida's fastest growing county with a 30% population increase since 2015, driven by A-rated schools, high-income professionals, and master-planned communities like Nocatee. However, Manatee County leads in overall growth momentum when combining population growth, home value appreciation, and development pipeline.
What is the best county to move to in Florida right now?
The "best" county depends on your priorities. Manatee County offers the best balance of affordability, lifestyle access, and growth potential. St. Johns County is ideal for families seeking top-rated schools and higher-income communities. Volusia County provides the most affordable coastal lifestyle with strong long-term appreciation potential.
Are Florida home prices still going up?
Yes, home values in Florida's top growth counties remain strong. Since 2013, appreciation ranges from 150% in St. Johns County to 190% in Manatee County. While the market has balanced from pandemic peaks, these growth counties continue to see steady appreciation driven by sustained migration and limited inventory.
Where are most people moving to in Florida?
The Gulf Coast counties—particularly Manatee and Sarasota—along with St. Johns County in Northeast Florida are receiving the highest net migration numbers. In 2023 alone, Volusia County saw nearly 17,000 new residents, while Manatee County added approximately 12,000, and Sarasota County welcomed 11,000-12,000 new residents.
Is it still worth investing in Florida real estate?
Florida's top growth counties continue to offer strong investment potential based on three key factors: sustained net migration (97% of Sarasota County's growth comes from in-migration), infrastructure expansion, and development pipelines. Counties like Manatee, St. Johns, and Volusia show particularly strong fundamentals for long-term appreciation.
What makes a Florida county a good place to retire?
The top retirement counties combine coastal or cultural lifestyle amenities, healthcare infrastructure, lower cost of living compared to other desirable markets, and strong community features. Sarasota County leads for affluent retirees seeking culture and beaches, while Volusia and Lee Counties offer more affordable coastal retirement options.
Which Florida counties have the best schools?
St. Johns County boasts the highest-rated school system among growth counties, which is a primary driver of family migration to the area. Manatee County has also invested heavily in new, high-quality schools, particularly in the Lakewood Ranch area, making it increasingly attractive to families.
Understanding Florida's Growth Index: The Methodology
To accurately identify Florida's fastest growing counties, a comprehensive Florida Growth Index was developed using three weighted criteria that reflect sustainable, long-term growth rather than just short-term population spikes.
The index weighs home value growth at 40% because appreciation reflects market demand, economic strength, and investor confidence. Population and net migration accounts for 40% of the ranking, as sustained in-migration indicates lasting appeal and economic opportunity. Finally, development momentum represents 20% of the score, measuring infrastructure projects, new construction, and planned communities that signal future growth capacity.
This methodology was applied to every county across Florida, analyzing data from 2013 through 2024 and projecting trends through 2030. The result is a data-driven ranking that goes beyond simple population growth to identify counties with the strongest overall growth fundamentals.
#5: Volusia County (Daytona Beach, Deltona, New Smyrna Beach)
Growth Facts and Population Trends
Volusia County has experienced 9% population growth since 2020 and is projected to exceed 630,000 residents by 2030. More impressively, Volusia County ranks as number two in Florida for net migration, with nearly 17,000 people moving into the area in 2023 alone. This sustained in-migration demonstrates the county's growing appeal as a relocation destination.
The median home price in Volusia County currently sits at approximately $360,000, representing a 165% increase since 2013. This appreciation, while significant, still positions Volusia as one of Florida's more affordable coastal markets—a key factor in its continued growth.
Why Is Volusia County Growing?
Affordability Meets Coastal Lifestyle: Volusia County represents one of Florida's last affordable beach markets, offering coastal living at a price point that's increasingly rare in the state. This combination attracts both retirees seeking beach access and remote workers looking for lifestyle upgrades without premium price tags.
Strategic Location Advantage: The county benefits from its proximity to major economic centers, sitting just one hour from Orlando. Major I-4 corridor improvement projects are enhancing accessibility to Orlando's metro area, effectively expanding Volusia County's appeal to Orlando-based workers seeking more affordable housing and coastal amenities.
Strong Migration Demographics: The county draws heavily from Northeast retirees seeking warmer weather and lower cost of living, as well as remote workers who can live anywhere and choose lifestyle over location. This diverse migration base provides stability and sustained demand.
Volusia County Outlook Through 2030
Expect steady, consistent long-term growth driven by three primary factors: continued retiree migration, sustained affordability advantage, and new development along the I-95 corridor. As inland buyers from metros like Orlando continue pushing east toward the coast seeking more affordable options, Volusia County is positioned to capture this demand.
The county's growth pattern suggests consistent appreciation over the next several years rather than explosive spikes. This makes it an attractive option for buyers seeking entry into Florida's coastal markets and investors looking for steady returns. The combination of beach access, improving infrastructure, and maintained affordability creates a compelling value proposition that should sustain growth momentum through 2030.
#4: Lee County (Fort Myers, Cape Coral)
Growth Facts and Market Performance
Lee County has seen a remarkable 25% population increase since 2005, growing to approximately 830,000 residents with projections to reach 900,000 by 2030. The county ranks as number three in Florida for net migration over the past several years, demonstrating sustained appeal despite recent challenges.
The current median home price in Lee County is approximately $430,000, up about 180% since 2013. This positions Lee County as one of the fastest growing metros in the entire state of Florida, with price appreciation reflecting both strong demand and post-hurricane rebuilding efforts.
Why Is Lee County Growing?
Hurricane Ian Recovery and Rebuild Boom: The massive reconstruction effort following Hurricane Ian in 2022 has catalyzed a new construction boom that's actually accelerating development and modernizing infrastructure across the county. While initially seen as a setback, the rebuild has created opportunities for improved construction standards and updated community planning.
Affordable Waterfront Living: Lee County continues to offer some of Florida's most accessible waterfront living options. Cape Coral, in particular, boasts more canal miles than any other city in the world, providing boat access and waterfront homes at price points significantly below markets like Naples or Sarasota.
Strong Retiree Migration: The county's warm climate, outdoor recreational opportunities, and lower cost of living compared to other Southwest Florida markets make it a magnet for retirees from across the country. The retirement demographic provides economic stability and sustained housing demand.
Lee County Outlook Through 2030
Lee County's rebuild is fueling significant investment in new infrastructure and housing inventory that will position the county for sustained growth. The long-term fundamentals remain strong thanks to continued migration, maintained affordability compared to neighboring markets like Naples and Sarasota, and the completion of hurricane-resilient construction.
The county is particularly benefiting from overflow demand from more expensive Southwest Florida markets. As Naples and Sarasota pricing pushes buyers to explore alternatives, Lee County captures this demand with similar lifestyle amenities at more accessible price points. Combined with improved infrastructure and modernized building standards post-hurricane, Lee County is positioned for steady appreciation and population growth through 2030.
#3: Sarasota County (Sarasota, Venice, Wellen Park)
Growth Facts and Market Strength
Sarasota County's population currently stands at approximately 480,000 residents and is projected to exceed 500,000 by 2030. The county has experienced a whopping 180% home value appreciation since 2013, ranking as one of Florida's top 10 counties for price appreciation.
The median home price in Sarasota County is currently around $500,000—still 70% higher than pre-pandemic levels, demonstrating the sustained strength of the market even after initial correction from peak pricing. Importantly, the county adds approximately 11,000-12,000 new residents every year, with an impressive 97% of growth driven by in-migration rather than natural population increase. This statistic underscores that people are actively choosing Sarasota County as a relocation destination.
Why Is Sarasota County Growing?
Lifestyle, Culture, and Beaches: Sarasota County offers a unique combination that few Florida markets can match—pristine beaches consistently ranked among America's best, a thriving arts and culture scene with theaters and galleries, and a vibrant downtown that attracts affluent relocators seeking more than just sunshine. This lifestyle trifecta appeals to culturally engaged retirees and professionals seeking a sophisticated quality of life.
Infrastructure Momentum Creating Capacity: Several major infrastructure developments are supporting continued growth. Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport (SRQ) expansion is adding flights and capacity, improving accessibility from major metro areas. I-75 corridor improvements are enhancing connectivity throughout the region. New master-planned communities like Wellen Park (one of America's fastest-growing communities), Waterside, Lakewood Ranch East, and East Sarasota developments are creating thousands of new homes with resort-style amenities.
Wealth Migration: Sarasota County attracts a higher-income demographic compared to many Florida markets, with relocators bringing significant wealth from high-cost states like New York, New Jersey, and California. This wealth migration supports premium pricing and creates strong equity stability.
Sarasota County Outlook Through 2030
Sarasota County is transitioning from boom to balance, moving toward a more sustainable luxury growth model. Rather than the rapid appreciation of 2020-2022, expect steadier price growth supported by wealth migration and limited coastal inventory. The county's appeal to high-value buyers—those seeking lifestyle and culture in addition to weather—keeps it firmly positioned as one of Florida's most desirable counties.
The combination of established cultural amenities, completed infrastructure improvements, and continued high-income migration creates a stable foundation for long-term appreciation. While growth may moderate from pandemic peaks, the fundamental drivers remain strong, positioning Sarasota County for sustained desirability and property value growth through 2030.
#2: St. Johns County (St. Augustine, Jacksonville Suburbs, Nocatee)
Growth Facts and Population Surge
St. Johns County holds the distinction of being the fastest growing county in Florida by percentage, with an extraordinary 30% population increase since 2015. This rapid growth reflects the county's emergence as a premier family destination combining economic opportunity, quality of life, and community planning.
The median home price in St. Johns County is approximately $520,000, representing a 150% increase since 2013. Significantly, the county boasts the highest median household income in Florida at $140,000 per year, indicating the caliber of professionals and families relocating to the area.
St. Johns County is home to Nocatee, one of the nation's top-selling master-planned communities that consistently ranks among the top 10 in the United States. This community exemplifies the resort-style living and comprehensive amenities that define the county's appeal.
Why Is St. Johns County Growing?
A-Rated School Systems: Education quality stands as the primary driver of family migration to St. Johns County. The county's school system consistently earns top ratings, making it the destination of choice for families prioritizing children's education. This focus on schools creates a virtuous cycle—strong schools attract families, which supports property values, which funds better schools.
Family-Friendly Master-Planned Communities: St. Johns County has perfected the master-planned community model with neighborhoods featuring resort-style amenities including water parks, fitness centers, miles of trails, community events, and social clubs. These communities create lifestyle experiences that attract families seeking more than just a house—they want a complete living environment.
High-Income Remote Work Migration: The county has become a magnet for high-earning professionals who can work remotely and are leaving expensive metros for better quality of life. These relocators bring strong purchasing power and seek the combination of excellent schools, community amenities, and lower cost of living compared to major metropolitan areas.
Proximity to Jacksonville's Economy: While offering a suburban and resort-community feel, St. Johns County benefits from proximity to Jacksonville's economic base and employment opportunities. This provides the best of both worlds—access to urban employment with suburban lifestyle.
St. Johns County Outlook Through 2030
Expect steady, high-quality growth that maintains rather than accelerates. St. Johns County has established itself as a premium family destination with the infrastructure, schools, and community planning to support continued in-migration.
The county successfully blends wealth, family migration, and strong infrastructure, creating what many consider a long-term safe haven growth market in North Florida. Unlike areas dependent on a single demographic (such as pure retirement destinations), St. Johns County's family focus and economic diversity provide stability through market cycles.
The primary limiting factor for growth will be land availability rather than demand. As the county builds out, expect continued premium pricing supported by sustained demand from families and professionals seeking the St. Johns County lifestyle. This is a market built for long-term appreciation rather than speculative gains.
#1: Manatee County (Bradenton, Lakewood Ranch, Parrish)
Growth Facts and Market Leadership
Manatee County takes the top position in the Florida Growth Index, sitting at approximately 450,000 residents with projections to exceed 500,000 by 2030. The county has experienced a remarkable 190% home value appreciation since 2013—the highest among all top growth counties—with the median price approaching $500,000 and continuing to rise.
The county ranks number six in Florida for net migration, with approximately 12,000 new residents arriving in 2023. Most significantly, Manatee County is home to Lakewood Ranch, which holds the title of the number one best-selling master-planned community in the entire United States year over year—a position it has maintained for six consecutive years.
Why Is Manatee County Growing?
Perfect Balance of Lifestyle and Affordability: Manatee County offers immediate access to Sarasota's beaches, culture, and lifestyle amenities while maintaining more affordable price points. Residents can enjoy the best of both worlds—Sarasota's appeal without Sarasota's premium pricing. This positioning attracts buyers who want the Gulf Coast lifestyle but are priced out of or seeking better value than Sarasota County proper.
Massive Room for Expansion: Unlike more built-out coastal counties, Manatee County has significant developable land, particularly in Lakewood Ranch East and the Parrish corridor. This capacity allows for continued growth and new community development without the land constraints facing other desirable Florida markets.
Extraordinary Development Pipeline: The Parrish corridor specifically represents one of Florida's most ambitious development zones, with master-planned communities, commercial development, and infrastructure investments creating a complete live-work-play environment. This isn't just residential growth—it's comprehensive community building that will support sustained population increases.
World-Class Master-Planned Communities: Lakewood Ranch has set the standard for master-planned community development in Florida and nationally. With multiple villages, town centers, championship golf, A-rated schools, medical facilities, and thousands of acres of parks and preserved land, Lakewood Ranch provides a complete lifestyle that attracts families, retirees, and professionals alike.
Strong School Investment: Manatee County has invested heavily in new, high-quality schools, particularly in the Lakewood Ranch area. These schools compete with St. Johns County for families prioritizing education, broadening Manatee County's appeal beyond retirees to include families at all life stages.
Manatee County Outlook Through 2030
Manatee County is positioned as the Gulf Coast's growth engine for the next decade. The combination of sustained affordability relative to neighboring markets, massive migration momentum, expanding infrastructure, and extensive development capacity creates what is essentially the epicenter of Florida's next wave of population and real estate expansion.
The county is perfectly positioned in the sweet spot of growth—established enough to have infrastructure, schools, and amenities in place, but with sufficient land to accommodate continued development without the constraints or premium pricing of fully built-out markets.
As Sarasota County builds out and prices continue rising, Manatee County will capture increasing overflow demand while maintaining its own distinct identity and appeal. The completion of major infrastructure projects, expansion of employment centers in Lakewood Ranch and Parrish, and continued community development position Manatee County for sustained appreciation and population growth throughout the decade.
For investors and relocators alike, Manatee County represents the optimal combination of current value and future growth potential on Florida's Gulf Coast.
What These Growth Patterns Mean for Relocators and Investors
Understanding Florida's growth counties provides valuable insights whether you're relocating, investing, or simply planning for the future. Each of the top five counties offers distinct advantages depending on your priorities and stage of life.
For Families: St. Johns County and Manatee County lead with A-rated schools, family-focused master-planned communities, and safe neighborhoods. Both offer complete lifestyle environments where children can thrive.
For Retirees: Sarasota County provides sophisticated culture and beaches for affluent retirees, while Volusia and Lee Counties offer more affordable coastal retirement options. Manatee County bridges both worlds with access to culture and more approachable pricing.
For Investors: Look for the combination of sustained migration, development pipeline, and current affordability. Manatee County (especially the Parrish corridor), Volusia County (coastal areas), and Lee County (post-rebuild opportunities) offer strong fundamentals for appreciation.
For Remote Workers: All five counties provide lifestyle upgrades from expensive metros, but St. Johns County offers the highest-income peer group, Sarasota County provides the most cultural amenities, and Manatee County delivers the best value-to-lifestyle ratio.
Key Takeaways: Florida's Growth Through 2030
Florida's growth story heading into 2030 is one of strategic concentration rather than uniform expansion. While some headlines focus on market corrections or population shifts, the data reveals that specific counties are experiencing sustained, fundamental growth driven by migration, development, and long-term appeal.
The Gulf Coast dominates with Manatee and Sarasota Counties representing the epicenter of Florida's luxury and lifestyle growth. Northeast Florida emerges with St. Johns County as the state's family migration leader. Affordability markets like Volusia and Lee Counties continue attracting value-conscious buyers seeking coastal living without premium pricing.
The common thread among all five counties is sustained net migration—these are places people actively choose to move to, not just places experiencing natural population growth. This in-migration brings economic strength, supports property values, and funds infrastructure improvements that enable continued growth.
Whether you're planning a relocation or evaluating investment opportunities, these five counties represent Florida's clearest growth trajectories through 2030.
Ready to Explore Florida's Fastest Growing Counties?
If you're considering relocating to Manatee County, Sarasota County, St. Johns County, or anywhere else on Florida's Gulf Coast, Zachos Realty & Design Group is here to help. With over 40 years of combined local expertise and a unique combination of real estate knowledge and award-winning design vision, we can help you find the perfect property that matches your lifestyle needs.
Our team has successfully guided over 400 families through relocations to Florida's Gulf Coast, with over $150 million in closed transactions. We're in the top 5% of real estate agents nationwide and bring insider knowledge of the fastest growing markets in Florida.
Contact us today:
- Phone: 941-500-5457
- Email: [email protected]
- Sarasota Office: 205 N Orange Ave Suite 202, Sarasota, Florida 34236
- Venice Office: 217 Nassau St S, Venice, FL 34285
Visit our YouTube channel "Relocation Experts | Florida's Gulf Coast" for more insider guides to Florida's Gulf Coast communities, including detailed neighborhood tours, market updates, and relocation advice from local experts who live and work in these markets every day.
Free Relocation Resources: Download our comprehensive Florida Gulf Coast relocation guides covering area overviews, tax information, domicile requirements, and neighborhood comparisons to help you make informed decisions about your Florida move.